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MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be a Head Fake

Today brings a 2nd day of congressional testimony with Fed Chair Powell. there’s no guarantee that bonds would NOT have continued trending higher in 2019, nor is there a guarantee stocks would have.

MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be a Head Fake Apr 20 2018, 9:20AM Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher.

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The Market’s Euro Head Fake.. The prospect of higher rates caused the dollar to rally, because global capital was now expected to flow into U.S. dollars as part of the global chase for yield.

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MBS Day Ahead: Anything Other Than a Crushing Defeat is a Big Victory – As long as investors aren’t panicked about MBS (and they’re not), mortgage rates will be able to hold within a certain range of Treasuries regardless of Fed demand. From there, excess Treasury demand.

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If inflation is expected to decline for the foreseeable future, you can bet that mortgage rates have some room to fall. Conversely, an outlook which suggests higher inflation ahead will see mortgage rates rise, sometimes very quickly. Also, a poor economic climate affects mortgages much more profoundly than Treasuries.

Posted To: MBS Commentary. Bonds have had a good thing going so far in 2019. Various geopolitical uncertainties combined with the prospect of downbeat economic growth in Q1 and a generally dovish Federal Reserve to keep rates near recent lows. All this in spite of a somewhat substantial bounce back in the stock market.

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